The most important election in the history of the world, perhaps. The mid-terms of November 6, 2018 will determine whether the narcissistic, incompetent, disorganized, frightened, and angry occupant of the White House continues to operate basically unchecked by Congress, and whether a far-right, rich-enriching, 99%-impoverishing, Earth-destroying, woman-oppressing, international-relations mucking-up, white nationalizing agenda continues to be enacted into regulation, law, and, perhaps most long-lastingly, judicial appointments — ratifying the concept that the U.S. government should be the enemy of the people.
Moreover, if Democrats gain in state houses throughout the country this fall and in 2020, they will be in a position to affect how Congressional districts are redrawn after the 2020 census, which can undo a lot of the gerrymandering — manipulation of district boundaries — that has given Republicans an unfair advantage, such that the number of elected Republicans is far greater than it would be if one person’s vote truly counted as much as another’s. (Republicans got about 50 percent of the votes for Congress in 2016, but ended up with about 55 percent of the seats. In 2018, Democrats need to win House races by about 7% on average to overcome gerrymandering — not counting vote suppression, where Dems are prevented from voting via ID laws, closed polling places, and so forth. As of Sept. 6, Dems had an 8% advantage in “generic ballot” opinion polls, leaving not much margin.)
But you already know all that.
The prognosticators — remember them? the folks who were so sure Hair Furor could never be elected — seem to think it’s pretty likely the Democrats will gain control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections (if we get out and do our jobs). As for the Senate, while most projections favor the Republicans retaining control, enough seats are considered “toss-ups” that Dems could take over there, too, which would be huge, because the Senate ratifies judicial appointments.
Moreover, if Democrats gain in state houses throughout the country this fall and in 2020, they will be in a position to affect how Congressional districts are redrawn after the 2020 census, which can undo a lot of the gerrymandering — manipulation of district boundaries — that has given Republicans an unfair advantage, such that the number of elected Republicans is far greater than it would be if one person’s vote truly counted as much as another’s. (Republicans got about 50 percent of the votes for Congress in 2016, but ended up with about 55 percent of the seats. In 2018, Democrats need to win House races by about 7% on average to overcome gerrymandering — not counting vote suppression, where Dems are prevented from voting via ID laws, closed polling places, and so forth. As of Sept. 6, Dems had an 8% advantage in “generic ballot” opinion polls, leaving not much margin.)
But you already know all that.
The prognosticators — remember them? the folks who were so sure Hair Furor could never be elected — seem to think it’s pretty likely the Democrats will gain control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections (if we get out and do our jobs). As for the Senate, while most projections favor the Republicans retaining control, enough seats are considered “toss-ups” that Dems could take over there, too, which would be huge, because the Senate ratifies judicial appointments.
Blue Wave or Not Blue Wave?
That Is the Question
What’s not evident in polls and predictions is that “blue wave” everyone's talking about. That doesn’t mean there won't be a wave; it means there will be one only if we create it. Pollsters either report what all registered voters say or weight the results based on who they consider to be likely voters. On this latter measure, they were far wrong in 2008, when Barack Obama attracted many people to the polls who usually don’t bother to vote, and again in 2016, when the Orange Julius did the same, mobilizing a very different constituency. (He still would not have been elected but for Republican shenanigans that disenfranchised many voters, particularly in communities of color. Those shenanigans have continued, meaning we have even higher hurdles to leap this November.)
Much is made of the enthusiasm of anti-Trump voters this year, but the Prima Donald has also ratcheted up the motivation of his base. So, even more than in most years, in 2018 it comes down to the ground game: Who will do a better job of turning out their supporters on November 6 (and in early voting by mail and in person). Here, progressives have a natural edge, with more community consciousness, more experienced activists, and a resistance movement the likes of which this country may never have seen before.
But success won’t be handed to us; we have to go out and grab it. That’s where you come in.
Between now and election day, progressives must put in time and effort (as well as money), and must do so strategically. The purpose of this blog, and particularly today’s post, is to help you figure out the most effective place to focus your support.
That Is the Question
What’s not evident in polls and predictions is that “blue wave” everyone's talking about. That doesn’t mean there won't be a wave; it means there will be one only if we create it. Pollsters either report what all registered voters say or weight the results based on who they consider to be likely voters. On this latter measure, they were far wrong in 2008, when Barack Obama attracted many people to the polls who usually don’t bother to vote, and again in 2016, when the Orange Julius did the same, mobilizing a very different constituency. (He still would not have been elected but for Republican shenanigans that disenfranchised many voters, particularly in communities of color. Those shenanigans have continued, meaning we have even higher hurdles to leap this November.)
Much is made of the enthusiasm of anti-Trump voters this year, but the Prima Donald has also ratcheted up the motivation of his base. So, even more than in most years, in 2018 it comes down to the ground game: Who will do a better job of turning out their supporters on November 6 (and in early voting by mail and in person). Here, progressives have a natural edge, with more community consciousness, more experienced activists, and a resistance movement the likes of which this country may never have seen before.
But success won’t be handed to us; we have to go out and grab it. That’s where you come in.
Between now and election day, progressives must put in time and effort (as well as money), and must do so strategically. The purpose of this blog, and particularly today’s post, is to help you figure out the most effective place to focus your support.
How To Decide Where To Volunteer
At a recent Paint Congress Blue event in Oakland, CA, I interviewed representatives of several organizations to help readers of this blog figure out where to volunteer. Their efforts are centered on the San Francisco Bay Area, but most are chapters of national organizations, so you probably can find counterparts throughout the country. All the groups are doing good work. Some may be more effective than others, but the key, as with all volunteer activities, is what appeals to you most, because you will put in the most time and the best effort where you are most motivated.
Here, in a nutshell, is my brief summary, organized according to what might attract you. Pick one, and get in touch (with it or its counterpart where you are) right away. Remember, as I write these words, only nine weeks remain before this most consequential of elections. So, please read on, and before you do anything else, click the provided link to volunteer with the group of your choice.
Bay Area groups focused on flipping the Congress have targeted two districts that are about 2½ hours’ driving distance away: the 10th District (Modesto area), with a voting history that’s about evenly Democratic and Republican; and the 21st District (Fresno area), leaning about five points Democratic. (I attended an event at which CD 21’s Democratic challenger T.J. Cox spoke. I was very impressed — both that he’s a good guy and that he knows how to win.)
At a recent Paint Congress Blue event in Oakland, CA, I interviewed representatives of several organizations to help readers of this blog figure out where to volunteer. Their efforts are centered on the San Francisco Bay Area, but most are chapters of national organizations, so you probably can find counterparts throughout the country. All the groups are doing good work. Some may be more effective than others, but the key, as with all volunteer activities, is what appeals to you most, because you will put in the most time and the best effort where you are most motivated.
Here, in a nutshell, is my brief summary, organized according to what might attract you. Pick one, and get in touch (with it or its counterpart where you are) right away. Remember, as I write these words, only nine weeks remain before this most consequential of elections. So, please read on, and before you do anything else, click the provided link to volunteer with the group of your choice.
Bay Area groups focused on flipping the Congress have targeted two districts that are about 2½ hours’ driving distance away: the 10th District (Modesto area), with a voting history that’s about evenly Democratic and Republican; and the 21st District (Fresno area), leaning about five points Democratic. (I attended an event at which CD 21’s Democratic challenger T.J. Cox spoke. I was very impressed — both that he’s a good guy and that he knows how to win.)
Your Choices
Choose one group, and get going. (And if you can't quite decide which is best for you, just pick one — they’re all good, and taking action now is crucial.) I’ve provided links for signing up in the Bay Area, and elsewhere throughout the country.
Choose one group, and get going. (And if you can't quite decide which is best for you, just pick one — they’re all good, and taking action now is crucial.) I’ve provided links for signing up in the Bay Area, and elsewhere throughout the country.
1. Want to focus on the most effective strategy and have real conversations with swing voters? Working America, affiliated with the AFL-CIO labor federation, is doing what it calls “deep canvassing,” going door-to-door having real conversations with voters. WA has been doing this in “flippable” Republican Congressional districts for months (including two near the San Francisco Bay Area), asking voters what matters to them, and establishing ongoing relationships — including signing up more than 30,000 people as members. After Labor Day, the focus shifts: Now, WA will be going back to those same voters to tell them how their members of Congress stand on the issues that matter most to these voters. Face-to-face, real conversations have been shown in well-designed studies to be the most effective means of influencing voters’ positions as well as turnout. WA’s canvassing goes beyond mere voter ID — identifying people who already support the desired candidate(s) — and emphasizes swing voters, meaning it is working to expand the pool of supporters, not just mobilize existing liberals and progressives. WA canvasses on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays, with Saturday being best for new volunteers. Sign Up Here (communities nationwide)
2. Want to work on issues (not just elections), with newer, perhaps younger, activists? Indivisible East Bay (IEB) is doing it all — lobbying legislators and local officials on issues; registering new voters; educating volunteers on how to canvass effectively in “purple” (mixed) and “red” (Republican) districts; writing postcards; phone banking; and texting. Some of these strategies are unproven — writing persuasion postcards is particularly doubtful as a way to get results, and to a lesser extent, text banking is unproven (though I’ve done quite a bit of it, and my anecdotal experience says it can be valuable if targeted to known supporters to provide updates on the issues or reminders to go vote). IEB is also working with several other groups, including Working America, and directly with candidates’ campaigns. The Indivisible movement exploded soon after the 2016 election after several former Congressional staffers published a guide to how the left can learn from the Tea Party movement’s strategies to achieve outsized influence over Congressional decisions. Indivisible groups tend to be younger and have more first-time activists than some other groups. Take Immediate Action or Sign Up Here (Bay Area), or Sign Up Here (other communities)
3. Want a single-minded focus on flipping the House of Representatives, working closely with candidates’ campaigns? Swing Left East Bay is focused on identifying and turning out voters who will help flip two Congressional districts from red to blue, working with the Democrats’ campaigns on two specific strategies: traveling as a group on weekends to the 10th and 21st Congressional districts to talk with voters door-to-door; and phoning targeted voters from Oakland-based phone banks. In both cases, the focus is on identifying and mobilizing supportive voters, not persuading supporters of the Republican. Sign Up Here (East Bay) or Sign Up Here (other communities)
4. Want to mobilize “mid-term skippers” — Democratic voters who turn out during Presidential years but might stay home during a midterm — perhaps focusing on Spanish speakers? Flip the 14 is targeting 14 “flippable” Congressional districts in California that are currently held by Republicans, which would provide most of 24-seat pick-up needed to return the House to Democratic control. Its specific focus is on motivating and mobilizing “mid-term skipping” Democratic voters — people who voted in the last two Presidential elections (2012 and 2016), but not in the last two mid-terms (2010 and 2014). Flip the 14 has a very detailed targeting strategy, working with a variety of established and newer electoral organizations. One special focus is reaching out to 300,000 Spanish-speaking mid-term skippers in the targeted districts, including sending reminder postcards to 17,000 voters who requested ballots in Spanish, phoning 50,000 Spanish-speaking voters, and texting 100,000 Spanish-speaking voters. This is in addition to door-to-door, phone, and text outreach to general mid-term skippers. In the primaries, Flip the 14 saw increased turnout among its targeted voters, many of whom may have been relatively unaware of an upcoming election or its importance. Sign Up Here (14 Congressional districts in California)
5. Want to work on state-level change? Sister District partners progressive Congressional Districts with communities in other states where state-level elections can be swung from red to blue. Two key reasons to focus on state elections: After the 2020 census, state officials will redraw Congressional district boundaries, which Republicans have manipulated to cement an advantage they wouldn’t have under fairer maps; and as we lose on key issues at the national level (choice, environment, health care), states will need to step in to preserve our rights. Sign Up Here (California 13th Congressional District — East Bay) or Sign Up Here (nationwide)
One More Thing …
We can end GOP control of the House, and possibly the Senate, only if these efforts are well staffed with thousands of volunteers. After you’ve signed up with the group of your choice, please spread the word — click here to share on Facebook, click here to share on Twitter, and please e-mail your contacts, urging them to visit http://effectiveprogressive.org. I also welcome your additions, comments, and questions — click Comments below.
We can end GOP control of the House, and possibly the Senate, only if these efforts are well staffed with thousands of volunteers. After you’ve signed up with the group of your choice, please spread the word — click here to share on Facebook, click here to share on Twitter, and please e-mail your contacts, urging them to visit http://effectiveprogressive.org. I also welcome your additions, comments, and questions — click Comments below.
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