The most important election in the history of the world, perhaps. The mid-terms of November 6, 2018 will determine whether the narcissistic, incompetent, disorganized, frightened, and angry occupant of the White House continues to operate basically unchecked by Congress, and whether a far-right, rich-enriching, 99%-impoverishing, Earth-destroying, woman-oppressing, international-relations mucking-up, white nationalizing agenda continues to be enacted into regulation, law, and, perhaps most long-lastingly, judicial appointments — ratifying the concept that the U.S. government should be the enemy of the people.
 
Moreover, if Democrats gain in state houses throughout the country this fall and in 2020, they will be in a position to affect how Congressional districts are redrawn after the 2020 census, which can undo a lot of the gerrymandering — manipulation of district boundaries — that has given Republicans an unfair advantage, such that the number of elected Republicans is far greater than it would be if one person’s vote truly counted as much as another’s. (Republicans got about 50 percent of the votes for Congress in 2016, but ended up with about 55 percent of the seats. In 2018, Democrats need to win House races by about 7% on average to overcome gerrymandering — not counting vote suppression, where Dems are prevented from voting via ID laws, closed polling places, and so forth. As of Sept. 6, Dems had an 8% advantage in “generic ballot” opinion polls, leaving not much margin.)
 
But you already know all that.
 
The prognosticators — remember them? the folks who were so sure Hair Furor could never be elected — seem to think it’s pretty likely the Democrats will gain control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections (if we get out and do our jobs). As for the Senate, while most projections favor the Republicans retaining control, enough seats are considered “toss-ups” that Dems could take over there, too, which would be huge, because the Senate ratifies judicial appointments.

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Blue Wave or Not Blue Wave?
​That Is the Question
 
What’s not evident in polls and predictions is that “blue wave” everyone's talking about. That doesn’t mean there won't be a wave; it means there will be one only if we create it. Pollsters either report what all registered voters say or weight the results based on who they consider to be likely voters. On this latter measure, they were far wrong in 2008, when Barack Obama attracted many people to the polls who usually don’t bother to vote, and again in 2016, when the Orange Julius did the same, mobilizing a very different constituency. (He still would not have been elected but for Republican shenanigans that disenfranchised many voters, particularly in communities of color. Those shenanigans have continued, meaning we have even higher hurdles to leap this November.)
 
Much is made of the enthusiasm of anti-Trump voters this year, but the Prima Donald has also ratcheted up the motivation of his base. So, even more than in most years, in 2018 it comes down to the ground game: Who will do a better job of turning out their supporters on November 6 (and in early voting by mail and in person). Here, progressives have a natural edge, with more community consciousness, more experienced activists, and a resistance movement the likes of which this country may never have seen before.
 
But success won’t be handed to us; we have to go out and grab it. That’s where you come in.
 
Between now and election day, progressives must put in time and effort (as well as money), and must do so strategically. The purpose of this blog, and particularly today’s post, is to help you figure out the most effective place to focus your support.

How To Decide Where To Volunteer
 
At a recent Paint Congress Blue event in Oakland, CA, I interviewed representatives of several organizations to help readers of this blog figure out where to volunteer. Their efforts are centered on the San Francisco Bay Area, but most are chapters of national organizations, so you probably can find counterparts throughout the country. All the groups are doing good work. Some may be more effective than others, but the key, as with all volunteer activities, is what appeals to you most, because you will put in the most time and the best effort where you are most motivated.
 
Here, in a nutshell, is my brief summary, organized according to what might attract you. Pick one, and get in touch (with it or its counterpart where you are) right away. Remember, as I write these words, only nine weeks remain before this most consequential of elections. So, please read on, and before you do anything else, click the provided link to volunteer with the group of your choice.
 
Bay Area groups focused on flipping the Congress have targeted two districts that are about 2½ hours’ driving distance away: the 10th District (Modesto area), with a voting history that’s about evenly Democratic and Republican; and the 21st District (Fresno area), leaning about five points Democratic. (I attended an event at which CD 21’s Democratic challenger T.J. Cox spoke. I was very impressed — both that he’s a good guy and that he knows how to win.)

​Your Choices
 
Choose one group, and get going. (And if you can't quite decide which is best for you, just pick one — they’re all good, and taking action now is crucial.) I’ve provided links for signing up in the Bay Area, and elsewhere throughout the country.
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1. Want to focus on the most effective strategy and have real conversations with swing voters? Working America, affiliated with the AFL-CIO labor federation, is doing what it calls “deep canvassing,” going door-to-door having real conversations with voters. WA has been doing this in “flippable” Republican Congressional districts for months (including two near the San Francisco Bay Area), asking voters what matters to them, and establishing ongoing relationships — including signing up more than 30,000 people as members. After Labor Day, the focus shifts: Now, WA will be going back to those same voters to tell them how their members of Congress stand on the issues that matter most to these voters. Face-to-face, real conversations have been shown in well-designed studies to be the most effective means of influencing voters’ positions as well as turnout. WA’s canvassing goes beyond mere voter ID — identifying people who already support the desired candidate(s) — and emphasizes swing voters, meaning it is working to expand the pool of supporters, not just mobilize existing liberals and progressives. WA canvasses on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays, with Saturday being best for new volunteers. Sign Up Here (communities nationwide)
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2. Want to work on issues (not just elections), with newer, perhaps younger, activists? Indivisible East Bay (IEB) is doing it all — lobbying legislators and local officials on issues; registering new voters; educating volunteers on how to canvass effectively in “purple” (mixed) and “red” (Republican) districts; writing postcards; phone banking; and texting. Some of these strategies are unproven — writing persuasion postcards is particularly doubtful as a way to get results, and to a lesser extent, text banking is unproven (though I’ve done quite a bit of it, and my anecdotal experience says it can be valuable if targeted to known supporters to provide updates on the issues or reminders to go vote). IEB is also working with several other groups, including Working America, and directly with candidates’ campaigns. The Indivisible movement exploded soon after the 2016 election after several former Congressional staffers published a guide to how the left can learn from the Tea Party movement’s strategies to achieve outsized influence over Congressional decisions. Indivisible groups tend to be younger and have more first-time activists than some other groups. Take Immediate Action or Sign Up Here (Bay Area), or Sign Up Here (other communities)
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3. Want a single-minded focus on flipping the House of Representatives, working closely with candidates’ campaigns? Swing Left East Bay is focused on identifying and turning out voters who will help flip two Congressional districts from red to blue, working with the Democrats’ campaigns on two specific strategies: traveling as a group on weekends to the 10th and 21st Congressional districts to talk with voters door-to-door; and phoning targeted voters from Oakland-based phone banks. In both cases, the focus is on identifying and mobilizing supportive voters, not persuading supporters of the Republican. Sign Up Here (East Bay) or Sign Up Here (other communities)

4. Want to mobilize “mid-term skippers” — Democratic voters who turn out during Presidential years but might stay home during a midterm — perhaps focusing on Spanish speakers? Flip the 14 is targeting 14 “flippable” Congressional districts in California that are currently held by Republicans, which would provide most of 24-seat pick-up needed to return the House to Democratic control. Its specific focus is on motivating and mobilizing “mid-term skipping” Democratic voters — people who voted in the last two Presidential elections (2012 and 2016), but not in the last two mid-terms (2010 and 2014). Flip the 14 has a very detailed targeting strategy, working with a variety of established and newer electoral organizations. One special focus is reaching out to 300,000 Spanish-speaking mid-term skippers in the targeted districts, including sending reminder postcards to 17,000 voters who requested ballots in Spanish, phoning 50,000 Spanish-speaking voters, and texting 100,000 Spanish-speaking voters. This is in addition to door-to-door, phone, and text outreach to general mid-term skippers. In the primaries, Flip the 14 saw increased turnout among its targeted voters, many of whom may have been relatively unaware of an upcoming election or its importance. Sign Up Here (14 Congressional districts in California)
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5. Want to work on state-level change? Sister District partners progressive Congressional Districts with communities in other states where state-level elections can be swung from red to blue. Two key reasons to focus on state elections: After the 2020 census, state officials will redraw Congressional district boundaries, which Republicans have manipulated to cement an advantage they wouldn’t have under fairer maps; and as we lose on key issues at the national level (choice, environment, health care), states will need to step in to preserve our rights. Sign Up Here (California 13th Congressional District — East Bay) or Sign Up Here (nationwide)
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One More Thing …
 
We can end GOP control of the House, and possibly the Senate, only if these efforts are well staffed with thousands of volunteers. After you’ve signed up with the group of your choice, please spread the word — click here to share on Facebook, click here to share on Twitter, and please e-mail your contacts, urging them to visit http://effectiveprogressive.org. I also welcome your additions, comments, and questions — click Comments below.

​Another anti-Semitic, bigoted candidate has won a Republican primary, this time in a Missouri state house race. Steve West says a vast Jewish conspiracy is trying to take over the country. His views toward Muslims are hardly better. 
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Hateful Zealots Dangerous — Including to the GOP

At least in the short term, the fact that neo-Nazis and such are crawling out from under their rocks is quite worrisome. But assuming — and I don’t think it’s a safe assumption, but it’s the likelier course — their 15 minutes of fame end quickly, the long-term effect could be further mass abandonment of the GOP.
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The extreme bigots attaching themselves to the GOP (including, but not limited to, the one at the top) may be part of the reason voters are shifting away from the Republican party at an accelerating pace, as found in a Pew study last year:
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• • Silent Generation, born 1928–1945:  52% R, 43% D
• • Baby Boomers, born 1946–1964:  46% R, 48% D
• • Generation X, born 1965–1980:  43% R, 48% D

• Millennials, born 1981–1996:  32% R, 59% D

In part, this represents people becoming more conservative with age, particularly white voters. In the Silent Generation, GOP affiliation has grown from 43% to 59% over the past decade. But that phenomenon is offset by a general trend leftward. The share of the public self-identifying as Democratic, and in particular liberal Democratic, has increased steadily since 2000 even as the population has aged.

Most Voters Not Shifting Rightward with Age

Voters younger than 73 haven’t exhibited any rightward shift. GenXers and Booomers have remained fairly stable in political affiliation in recent years. And Millennials are the first group where more white voters lean D; in the older groups, it’s voters of color who provide the Democratic edge. Add this to the decreasing share of the voting public that is identified as white, and you see nothing but trouble for the Republican Party.
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Maybe more importantly, Democrats elected to state houses in 2018 will enjoy incumbency in the 2020 elections (and generally, state senators and governors elected in 2018 won't yet be up for re-election). States will redraw legislative district maps, including for the U.S. House of Representatives, after the 2020 census. For the 2010 census, redistricting data was released to the states in March 2011. If the 2020 census follows a similar schedule, it will be state officeholders in 2021 who redraw the maps. After that, demographic trends will only increase the leftward lean of the voting public. So, Democratic gains in the next two rounds of state elections will have a profound, lasting effect.

In other words, 2018 could be the GOP’s last stand.

Trump Card? Or Deck Against Us All?

One odd implication of all this is that, in purely electoral terms, it could be in progressives’ interest (not that Democrats are universally progressive, but in my opinion there is no comparison between them and today’s Republican electeds) for the Hair Furor to remain in office for a full term rather than resigning or being impeached. He continues to drive voters away from the GOP and to motivate Democratic and progressive citizens to become engaged. ​
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​I continue to believe that, on balance, the country, and the world, will be better off the sooner the Orange Julius departs the Oval Office. I consider him too unhinged, too damaging to the culture, and too incompetent.

In pure Machiavellian terms, perhaps the best way that could happen would be if his McDonald’s habit were to take him out. That wouldn’t result in the kind of right-wing backlash that either impeachment or resignation would generate. (You can bet that, no matter the real reason for a resignation, D.T. will blame the left.)

Yes, a President Pence would be as bad or worse on policy in most respects, and wouldn’t stir up as much opposition because he’s not a raging man-baby. But in a scenario where Democrats control Congress, I believe his ability to tear everything down would be much less than the current monster’s. It’s a close call, and I’m open to persuasion on that point (I welcome your comments), but that is how I’ve seen things fairly consistently since November 2016.

If we make it through this current, very dark time, I believe there is a great opportunity looming on the horizon, and it’s not very far away. It won’t happen by itself — we need to go all out against the GOP’s voter-suppression machine and Russia’s meddling in order to flip the Congress this November — but if we are successful, even partially (i.e., ending GOP control of one house of Congress), the future begins to look significantly brighter. 

After the election in November 2016, progressives became active in droves. I went to meeting after meeting where many people said they had never been politically active before. Over and over, experienced leaders warned that we should expect to suffer some major losses, but we must carry on regardless.
  
In the middle of the night Saturday (at about 1:50 a.m. Eastern time), we suffered such a major loss with the passage in the Senate of a tax-reform bill that would radically increase the already disastrous transfer of wealth to the very richest of the rich. It is not yet ready to become law — it will still be difficult for the House and Senate to reconcile their different versions — but its ultimate passage, while not assured, is more likely than it was before this vote.
  
Unless and until this bill becomes law, the Republicans have still not completed any major legislation after a full year in control of Congress and the White House. That’s due to their own internal divisions; but also to a major extent, it’s due to us.
 
This is a dark day, but it has been long delayed. Let’s not lose sight of that; it’s a huge achievement. Moreover, the majority of the public is aware that this bill is a sucker-punch to everyone but the super-rich, and that may help the Republicans lose control in next year’s election. In communicating with Tennessee voters on this issue yesterday and today, I’ve heard from dozens of people who see this as a personal hit on them and will not forget that.

Let’s be ready to remind voters across the country how this bill will affect them. The November election will be just two months before people start filing their 2018 tax returns; we can use that occasion to show them how bad their 2018 and subsequent returns will look. This is the silver lining within this dark cloud; let’s be prepared to make full use of it in the year ahead.
  
In the meantime, we’ll continue the fight to prevent final passage of this #GOPtaxscam. The House and Senate versions are very different; however those differences are reconciled, the adjustments could still lose votes for the final bill. One way you can be active: sign up now to join the Working Families Party’s activist team. WFP volunteers (myself included) are texting and calling voters throughout the country opposing the worst regressive national policies, including this bill, as well as supporting progressive candidates at all levels.
  
Yes, this is a dark day, but in the words of Florence + the Machine, “I like to keep my issues strong — it’s always darkest before the dawn.”  ​